The strong limitations due to the Corona pandemic must be controlled according to the estimation of the German society for epidemiology (DGEpi) over several months and, under certain circumstances, within the next two weeks exacerbated.
The goal must not be to exceed the capacity of the intensive care units, stated in an opinion of the company (Ulm). The successful only, in the the pace of the infection will be throttled.
The number of infections with the Coronavirus rises after the experience of the researcher is not linear, because an Infected person on average infects analyses, according to more than two other people.
In the case of an exponential growth in the number of which doubles with each infection round. This pace should be slowed by new clip-on will be prevented as well as possible.
Already small changes in these so-called reproduction number can be significant. The measure indicates how many people are infected with a sick Person, on average.
To get “the spread of the Virus in the handle, it is also crucial, as the company followed the rules and limits,” said Rafael Mikolajczyk, Director of the Institute for Medical epidemiology, biometry and Informatics, Halle/Saale, Germany, on Thursday, the German press Agency.
“The more this is understood, the less the measures will be tightened.”
According to epidemiologists, there are currently only a small window of time in which the Curb and Slow down the spread of Infection can be decided without overloading the health system.
The DGEpi is assumed that the measures taken so far have reduced the so-called reproduction number already. “The extent is not clear,” said Mikolajczyk, who has formulated the opinion of the DGepi.
Since the case numbers and thus the number of intensive medical care patients are increasing, but strong, calls for the Helmholtz-chief epidemiologist Gérard Krause, a change of strategy.
Because it’s not going to be able to provide sufficiently intensive capacities, should be held, the number of serious diseases as low as possible, said the head of epidemiology at the Helmholtz-centre for infection research (HZI), the ‘Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung (NOZ).
It should not be all of the resources bound to the Numbers to the curb, because you were missing, to treat Old and Vorerkrankte better.
Source
- German society for epidemiology (2020): opinion of the German society for epidemiology (DGEpi) to the spread of the new Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), archived from the original on 19.03.2020: http://docs.dpaq.de/16007-stellungnahme2020corona_dgepi_20200318__2_.pdf
Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa)
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