The first successes of the drastic measures?
A German research team evaluated the latest data on the growth of new infections with the Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. This showed that since Friday, the 20. March 2020 the Rate of COVID-19-new sick gone clear back.
Researchers of the Johannes Gutenberg-University of Mainz, analyzed the case, the COVID-19 numbers of new cases in the last few weeks. While in front of the 20.03.2020 average growth in new cases of 27 percent was decreased, the growth of new cases since the 20. March to an average of 14 percent per day. The Team looks at the drastic measures taken by the Federal government as the reason for the reduction in the rate of growth.
Market research methods converted
Economists and scientists realize to the evaluation of the Johns Hopkins data, a significant effect of the measures for the reduction of social contacts. The Team applied a statistical method that is commonly used in labour market research, the Johns Hopkins University, the Figures published for the dissemination of Covid-19. So the market recognized researchers, that the growth rate of the Coronavirus is SARS-CoV-2 caused Covid-19-diseases in Germany has almost halved.
No All-Clear
After delays due to the incubation period and the duration of up to going to the doctor, and the Transmission of any test results, the research team suggests that the first impact on the spread. However, grounds for complacency, it is not yet give. “Even a growth rate of 14 per cent is a cause for concern,” explains economist, Professor Dr. Klaus forests. “But the containment measures seem to have slowed down the progress of the Corona epidemic is already clear,” said the Professor. It is possible that we will see in the coming days for more impact.
RKI or Johns Hopkins Which data are more accurate?
The data of the Robert Koch Institute as well as the data of the Johns Hopkins University to be used in Germany, often to the assessment of the current Covid-19-Situation. The research team decided to use the data from the Johns Hopkins University. While the Robert Koch Institute collects only the data of the health authorities in Germany, the Johns Hopkins University data from multiple sources. This might be not quite as reliable as the data of the RKI, but current.
Limitations of the analysis
“Uncertainty, how well the data sources describe the reality, is, in any case,” says woods. However, don’t be so completely excluded, that the observed trend is flattening, corresponds to the reality. “Due to the permanent strong decrease in the growth rates of the statistical reliability of our results is more than 99.9 percent of the time,” says the Economics Professor. Deviations or random influences that cause such a flattening out, not be conceivable. Factors such as available test capacity or measurement error had a negligible weight. (vb)